According to the upcoming 19th edition of the report Satellites to be Built & Launched over the next ten years, due to be published later this month, Euroconsult anticipates that 145 satellites with launch mass over 50 kg will be launched on average each year by 2025 for government agencies and commercial organizations worldwide—when including satellites smaller than 50 kg and the two mega constellations of OneWeb and SpaceX, the total would grow precipitously to 9,000 units (vs. 1,480 launched in the past ten years).
The 1,450 satellites over 50 kg to be launched over the 2016 to 2025 timeframe should represent a market of $250 billion for the space industry to build and launch. A price decrease is visible in this core market of the industry, driven by 11 commercial constellations using 370 small satellites to be deployed into Low or Medium Earth Orbits (LEO / MEO) for communications or Earth Observation (EO).
Still, more than three quarters of the market remains with government satellites; the 880 satellites to be launched for civilian and military agencies in 60 countries represent a market of $193 billion. Governments dominate the space industry as established space countries replace and expand their on orbit satellite systems and more countries acquire their first operational satellite systems, usually for communications or for EO and imagery intelligence.
About 85 percent of the government market will remain concentrated in the ten countries with an established space industry (U.S., Russia, China, Japan, India, and five European countries). The other 50 countries engaged in space activities will launch twice the number of satellites that they did in the past ten years, i.e., almost 200 satellites. About half of these satellites will be procured from foreign manufacturers as domestic industry capabilities develop in these countries.
In the commercial space sector, Euroconsult anticipates a total of 560 satellites to be launched over the decade by 40 companies. Most of these satellites will be for the replacement of the communications capacity currently on orbit. Over two-thirds of the commercial space market remains concentrated in geostationary orbit, the destination of almost 300 satellites operated by 30 companies for communications and broadcasting services. The 11 commercial constellations to be launched into non-geostationary orbits for communications services and Earth observation imagery should represent a market of $1.6 billion per year on average over the decade.++
According to Rachel Villain, the Principal Advisor at Euroconsult and editor of the report, huge growth in satellite count does not automatically translate to a large market. As the price of the 7,550 future additional satellites is intrinsically low, the very reason for their existence, their market significance is small; they should represent no more than 8 percent of the $270 billion to be spent building and launching the total of 9,000 satellites.