The 80-page report also includes a model for estimating the percentage of households that will “cut the cord” from their payTV subscriptions based on limited, realistic, and aggressive adoption scenarios. Base on the realistic scenario, Trender Research predicts that 7 percent of households will forgo their oayTV subscriptions by 2012 in favor of some combination of OTT services and free over-the-air (OTA) broadcast television.
“The good news for payTV service providers is that the 80/20 rule applies in the case of OTT video,” said Trender Research CEO and Principal Analyst Brian Mahony. “The vast majority of consumers will not consider abandoning the familiarity, comfort, and content of traditional television until several obstacles to OTT adoption are overcome.” Among the OTT obstacles highlighted in the report are limited live TV, sports, and high definition content, and the relative complexity of setting up and using OTT devices and networks. “However, the OTT market is moving fast,” continued Mahony. “Judging by the rapid growth of online video consumption on sites like Hulu, and the plethora of enabling devices such as Roku, Xbox, and a range of new HDTV models, our projection may be conservative.”
The report profiles many of the leading OTT and emerging video industry players, including content sites such as YouTube, Hulu, and Netflix, and hardware such as AppleTV, Roku, Vudu, TiVo, Xbox, and Vizio. Enabling products are examined including video browsers Boxee and Zinc, home video distribution technologies including WiFi, WHDI, and MoCA, and supporting middleware, widgets, and applications. The report also looks at the response of payTV service providers, such as the TV Everywhere and Project Canvas initiatives, and the efforts of cable channels such as HBO and Discovery to implement their own online video strategies. Vendors that scored high on the Trender Dashboard™, which measures appeal to mainstream consumers, include Hulu, Netflix, TiVo, and Roku.