Attached is the Official Atlas V PAN L-1 Forecast.
There is little change in the launch day forecast with less favorable weather conditions by mid to late week expected.
Overall probability of violating weather constraints: 60% Primary concern(s): Anvil Clouds, Cumulus Clouds, Lightning
Overall probability of violating weather constraints for 24 hour delay: 70% Primary concern(s): Anvil Clouds, Cumulus Clouds, Lightning
Summary:
A developing low pressure system off the Carolina coast results in dryer air over the peninsula today. A remnant trough of low pressure East of the Florida peninsula with an upper level trough in the Gulf of Mexico persists through launch week.
Moisture gradually increases on launch day with ample moisture in place on Wednesday. Increasing moisture coupled with the upper level trough will result in afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the peninsula.
Weak Westerly steering level winds through mid week will result in slow migration of interior thunderstorms toward the East coast. Upper level winds will transport anvil clouds from interior thunderstorms toward the East coast.
For MLP roll, Northerly winds becoming Northeasterly by late morning gusting in the low to mid teens (230 feet) are expected along with coastal showers. There is a low threat of an isolated thunderstorm during roll. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to remain inland.
On launch day, increasing moisture, afternoon heating, and the influence of the upper level trough results in afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The seabreeze is expected to develop near noon and serve as the focus for developing thunderstorms as it pushes slowly to the West. Upper level steering winds will cause thunderstorms to slowly drift back toward the East coast. Westerly anvil level winds are a threat to transport anvil clouds back toward the East coast. The primary concerns for launch day are anvil clouds, cumulus clouds, and lightning. In the event of a 24 hour delay, increasing moisture and gradual strengthening of upper level winds will transport interior thunderstorms and anvil clouds back to the East coast. The primary concerns for a 24 hour delay are anvil clouds, cumulus clouds, and lightning.
United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket with the PAN satellite rolls out to its Space Launch Complex-41 launch pad at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla., at 10 a.m. EDT today. ULA is set to launch PAN, on behalf of the Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, Sept. 8, with a launch window of 5:35-7:45 p.m. EDT. Photo by Pat Corkery, United Launch Alliance