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Satnews Daily
March 11th, 2009

U.S. Intelligence Experts Believe North Korea Will Launch Missile With SATCOM Payload


North Korea is planning a space launch, as it claims, director of U.S. intelligence Dennis Blair told lawmakers Tuesday amid speculation about what sort of rocket Pyongyang plans to fire.

North Korea's Taepodong-2 missile "I tend to believe that the North Koreans announced that they are going to do a space launch and I believe that that's what they intend. I could be wrong but that would be my estimate," Blair told the Senate Armed Services Committee. Officials in Seoul and Washington have said that there are signs the communist state is preparing to test its Taepodong-2 missile, which has a range of 6,700 kilometers (4,100 miles) and could theoretically reach Alaska. The missile was initially launched in 2006 but failed after 40 seconds, according to U.S. officials.

Defense Intelligence Agency chief Lieutenant General Michael Maples, at the same hearing, noted that "North Korea announced in late February they intend to launch a communications satellite, the Kwangmyongsong-2." The testimony was coupled to the annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community, which showcased growing US concerns that Pyongyang may have a secret program to enrich uranium. "The IC (US intelligence community) continues to assess North Korea has pursued a uranium enrichment capability in the past. Some in the Intelligence Community have increasing concerns that North Korea has an ongoing covert uranium enrichment program," Blair warned in prepared testimony. "We remain concerned North Korea could again export nuclear technology," despite pledges not to under agreements reached in six-country denuclearization talks grouping China, Japan, North and South Korea, Russia and the United States, Blair said.

In 2008, North Korea shut down three core facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex and has completed eight of the 11 steps to disable the facility, he said. But "much work remains," and North Korea has recently "issued hardline statements suggesting further challenges to denuclearization," according to Blair, and there are no signs of political instability in Pyongyang. While supreme leader Kim Jong Il "probably suffered a stroke in August that incapacitated him for several weeks," it appears that his health has improved "and we assess he is making key decisions," said Blair. "We see no organized opposition to Kim Jong Il's rule and only occasional incidents of social disorder," said Blair. "The state's control apparatus by all accounts remains strong, sustaining the dismal condition of human rights in North Korea," he said.