Monster Asteroid to Hit the Earth in 2036 Spawns Earth Rescue Ideas
MOSCOW, May 24, 2007 - Satnews Daily - In February 2006, the Russians reminded everyone that an asteroid should shave by the Earth in April 2029, a scant 29 years away.
At its worst, the asteroid—identified as Apofiz-99942—should smash into the Earth by 2036. At the least, it should wipe out practically all civilian and military satellites in geostationary orbit, which is about 42,000km above the planet.
Russia’s Pulkovo Space Observatory estimates that on April 13, 2029, Apofiz-99942 (the inverted three 6s are not lost on the superstitious) will be at its closest distance to the Earth for 200 years. Apofiz (spelled Apophis in the West) will pass the Earth at a distance of 30,000 to 40,000 km. Whatever happens, the Earth will suffer from the effects of the close encounter with this asteroid.
According to Russia’s Institute of Applied Astronomy, about 400 asteroids and over 30 comets currently present a potential threat to the planet.
This chilling doomsday scenario wrought by the “killer asteroid” Apofiz-99942 has prompted the California-based non-governmental group, The Planetary Society, to launch the “Apophis Mission Design Competition”.
The Planetary Society is the largest space interest group in the world. Carl Sagan, Bruce Murray and Louis Friedman founded The Planetary Society in 1980.
The Apophis Mission Design Competition is offering $50,000 in prize money for designing a mission to rendezvous with and "tag" Apophis-99942. The society has reported that more than 100 teams and individuals from 25 nations are developing plans that could save Earth from Apophis.
Tagging may be necessary to track Apophis accurately enough to determine whether it will impact Earth, and thus help decide whether to mount a deflection mission to alter its orbit.
Apophis is a Near Earth object (NEO) some 400 meters in size. If Apophis passes through a several hundred-meter wide "keyhole" in 2029, it will impact Earth in 2036. While current estimates rate the probability of impact as very low, Apophis is being used as an example to enable design of a broader type of mission to any potentially dangerous asteroid.
Very precise tracking may be needed to determine the probability of a collision. Such precise tracking could require "tagging" the asteroid, perhaps with a beacon, transponder, reflector -- or some other method. Exactly how an asteroid could best be tagged is not yet known, nor is it obvious.
The recent Planetary Defense conference, a gathering of experts in all aspects of NEOs, recommended that results from this (Planetary Society) competition should be studied as a first step for future considerations of tagging. This competition may be a model for encouraging creative ideas for other aspects of planetary defense.
NASA currently has no plans to study methods of asteroid deflection, or how to tag an asteroid for precise tracking. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have co-sponsored the society competition and will study the best mission designs offered.
Russia, however, has said it is prepared to repel asteroids to save the Earth. Viktor Remishevsky, deputy head of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) was reported to have said that if necessary, Russia’s rocket-manufacturing complex can create the means in space to repulse asteroids threatening Earth. He also noted that saving the Earth from the threat of asteroids demands international cooperation.
In addition to NASA and ESA, The Planetary Society is conducting this competition in cooperation with the Association of Space Explorers (ASE), the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), and the Universities Space Research Association (USRA). The society will present the winning entries to the world's major space agencies, and the findings of the competition will be presented at relevant scientific and engineering conferences.
The United States, United Kingdom, Italy, India, Spain, Russia and Germany are the nations with the highest number of notices of intent submissions, said the society. The deadline for mission design proposals is August 31, 2007.
"We are thrilled that out Apophis Mission Design competition has generated such an enthusiastic response from around the world and look forward to seeing creative thinking on how to tag an asteroid," said Bruce Betts, The Planetary Society's director of projects.
