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Cable Residential Revenue to Reach $119.8-B by 2015, Says Kagan |
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MONTEREY, Calif., Aug. 31, 2006/Satnews Daily/ — A new study from Kagan Research reports that in the second half of 2006 cable operators are riding a wave of investor optimism related to the accelerating rollout of Internet Protocol (IP) voice services and the accompanying halo effect on basic subscriber retention and overall revenue per subscriber.
According to Kagan's Broadband Cable Financial Databook (26th edition), Cable IP voice homes marketed will leap from 31.2 million at the end of 2005 to an estimated 68.7 million by year-end 2006. Cable IP voice subscriptions have gone from 600K at year-end 2004 to 2.6 million at year-end 2005, and are forecast to jump to 6.5 million by year-end 2006.
The report said high-speed data penetration of basic video subscribers hit 39 percent at year-end 2005 (vs. 32 percent at year-end 2004) and is expected to grow to 45 percent by year-end 2006.
The report also said digital cable subscribers now surpass 30 million, based on a projected increase from 28.6 million at year-end 2005 to 31.6 million at year-end 2006. It said that in 2006, total residential revenue is expected to grow 9.6 percent to $68.2 billion at an average ARPU of $87.04 (vs. the $79.42 of 2005).
The industry continues to consolidate, with Comcast and Time Warner having completed their acquisition of Adelphia Communications, the report said. The top 10 MSOs will own or control 90 percent of the nation's cable subscribers, and many clustering benefits in major metro areas have yet to be realized.
The report cited the exploitation of the potential of interactive advertising, greater telephony efficiencies, increased penetration into businesses, better marketing economics, and a rationalization of operating costs.
“These factors, along with the continued growth of core businesses, will combine to push cable residential revenue to $119.8 billion by 2015, of which just 41 percent will be delivered by basic cable, vs. 47 percent in 2006,” said Robin Flynn, Kagan senior analyst.
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