Kagan Forecasts 82% of Households Will Be HD-equipped by 2010

MONTEREY, Calif., Nov. 14, 2005/Satnews Daily/ — A new study from Kagan Research forecasts 377 million cumulative HD sets will be sold to consumers by 2015, resulting in 110 million HD households. With more than 1,500 of 1,745 commercial and non-commercial U.S. stations broadcasting in digital as of June 30, 2005, and HD set sales now constituting the lion's share of digital TV sales, the HDTV supply chain is gearing up, says Kagan.

 “At the end of 2004, there were 11 million HD households; each owning an average of 1.2 HD sets,” said Kagan Research associate Patrick Johnson. “We project the average price of an HD set will decline some 38 percent by 2010, reducing the average price to $1,139. Rapid price declines, coupled with increasing levels of HD programming will drive the number of HD households to nearly 97 million in 2010, penetrating more than 82 percent of total TVHH.”

The study also reports on cable, satellite and telco rollouts of HD content, projecting that the number of cable HD subscribers will surpass 30 million by 2010, and forecasting that nearly 80 percent of all multichannel subscriber growth through 2015 will go to DBS and the telcos.

Kagan's 2006 edition of “The State of High Definition TV” provides an in-depth look at programming strategies, regulatory issues regarding the transition to digital and 10-year forecasts for high-definition DVDs, digital sets, HD sets, and HD subscribers for both cable and satellite operators.

Other significant findings of the study:

·        The number of cable HD subscribers grew from 675K in 2003 to 2.3 million in 2004. At the end of this year, Kagan estimates this figure will grow to 3.8 million and by 2010, the number of cable HD subscribers will surpass 30 million.

·        Kagan estimates in 2005 9.1 million HD sets will be sold to consumers. This figure is up from 3.4 million and 5.6 million in 2003 and 2004, respectively.

·        The U.S. DBS marketplace saw 10.6 percent annual subscriber growth in 2003 and 13.8 percent in 2004. In terms of HD subscribers, Kagan projects that by 2010, there will be more than 18 million.

·        Kagan estimates that just 1.1 million of the sets purchased by OTA subscribers this year will be digital, and that the number of analog sets in OTA TVHH will be roughly 39 million at year-end 2005.

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