|
Jan. 24/Satnews
Daily/ —
The number of satellite and cable
subscribers who own at least one HDTV set, have an HD set-top box and
are watching HD programming via an HD tier package or otherwise will
rise from 1.4 million in 2003 to nearly 94 million by 2015, according to
a new study by Kagan Research, the Monterey, California-based media
business analyst firm.
Kagan Research notes there is a sizable gap between the number of HD
sets purchased and the number of recipients of satellite and cable
service electing to become HD subscribers.
Kagan separates satellite subscribers from cable subscribers in its
10-year projections for the number of HD households; defined as a
household with one HD set. The new data utilizes current market share
figures as well as data from exclusive sources.
As of the end of
2004, Kagan estimated 12.4 million in cumulative HD sets sold since 1998
(10.4 million in single set purchases). With only 3.7 million current HD
subscribers between satellite and cable, there is a gap of 6.7 million,
Kagan notes. The firm attributed this to confusion among consumers (i.e.
they don't realize that they also need an HD STB to view HD programming,
etc.) saying their respective cable operators do not as yet offer HD
programming, or high digital-tier subscription costs may be a factor.
According to Patrick Johnson, Kagan research associate the adoption rate
of HD sets has seen solid growth over the last few years and has in turn
fueled the increase in the number of networks with HD programming.
“Between 1998 and year-end 2002, there were just six or seven networks
offering HD programming (not including the broadcast networks) and today
there are over twenty. We expect HD subscribers to grow at an annual
rate of nearly 30% over the next decade and wouldn't be surprised to see
the number of networks with HD programming grow substantially over the
same time period,” he said.
Other key findings of the Kagan study include:
- Total Cable and
Satellite HD Subscribers will surpass 88% penetration by 2015.
- Cable subscribers make up a larger portion of the gap between the
number of HD sets and HD subscribers.
- DBS will outpace Cable not in the number of HD subs or CAGR, but in
the penetration level of total subscribers.
- Satellite and Cable have larger shares of the HD market than they
do of the basic multichannel market. |
